If bookmaker Sportsbet has assessed the political winds in Queensland’s northernmost electorate correctly, incumbent MP Cynthia Lui is set to romp to victory for a third term representing Cook when voters go to the polls on 26 October.
An early state election market for the seat was released last week, with Ms Lui set to enter the home straight of the race as the odds-on favourite at $1.36.
Ahead of the 2020 Queensland election, the two-term Labor MP opened as a $1.60 chance but drifted in the market to sit around $2 when votes were cast.
Liberal National Party candidate David Kempton, who is attempting to reclaim Cook after serving as its MP from 2012 to 2015, is currently $2.88 in the market, with Katter’s Australian Party candidate Duane Amos and One Nation’s Peter Campion being offered at $14 to punters.
Sportsbet has not offered a price for Torres Strait-based independent Yen Loban.
Despite the market, Mr Amos said in a tongue-in-cheek social media post on 17 August he was prepared to let voters decide which runner they wanted representing them for the next four years.
“In this Cook Cup … take a long odds punt on the dark horse running from a local stable and coming from an outside barrier,” he quipped in the Facebook post.
“Runs well in the wet and won’t be bogged down on a Brisbane track.
“Track quality won’t be an issue as it’s been long forgotten and poorly maintained.
“Odds are out at [$14] but won’t stay this good for long, so get on this thoroughbred early.”
Sportsbet currently has Opposition Leader David Crisafulli as the $1.20 favourite to become Queensland’s 41st leader, with Premier Steven Miles and Labor at $5 to retain power.