Tropical Cyclone Maila is expected to make landfall over the weekend or early next week. Image: BoM.
Forecasters expect Tropical Cyclone Maila will move towards the Far North Queensland coast this weekend and make landfall less than a month after Tropical Cyclone Narelle hit Cape York.
Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) meteorologist Liam Smart said on Wednesday afternoon the cyclone was in the Solomon Sea between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, about 1350 kilometres northeast of Cairns.
Maila, which has been whipping up gusts of almost 300km/h, is likely to make landfall in Far North Queensland early next week.
The cyclone will likely cross the coast as a category 2 and at Cape York Peninsula, but it could track as far south as Cairns area.
“Currently, it’s a category 5 cyclone, but it has been undergoing some weakening on satellite imagery over the last couple of hours, which is expected because it’s been sitting in the same place for quite a long time,” Mr Smart said.
“It’s due to sit in the Solomon Sea for maybe another 24 hours before it starts wandering west-southwest towards the Queensland coast, with a potential crossing, at this stage, around Monday.
A Bureau of Meteorology track map of TC Maila published on Tuesday night (7 April). Image: BoM.
“There’s quite a few things going against the strength of TC Maila at the moment.
“One of those is the fact it’s just sitting in the same location, meaning it drags up all the cold water in a pressure called upwelling. Cyclones need warm water to feed and grow.”
Mr Smart said the cyclone was impacted by wind sheer and having to pass through the mountainous regions of PNG, as well as the cooler Coral Sea.
“We’re currently expecting a category 2 crossing. Quite a fair bit weaker then what we had with Tropical Cyclone Narelle,” he said.
However, Mr Smart urged residents to stay alert and keep an eye on bureau warnings as the cyclone approached. He warned a category 2 could still result in intense rain, flash flooding and damage to homes and other structures.
“Even with a category 2 system, you shouldn’t be looking at things thinking ‘oh, it’ll be fine’. If it crosses in an unfortunate or awkward spot, then it could be as bad as a category 4 or category 5,” Mr Smart said.
“And we’ve seen that with cyclones in the past as well. Jasper caused a lot of problems and it wasn’t the cyclone itself, it was the rain associated with it.”
Mr Smart said Maila was “a little bit bigger” in scale but less powerful than Narelle and may take roughly the same path as the earlier cyclone.
He said Maila’s movements were more difficult to forecast.
TC Narelle crossed the Cape on the morning of 20 March, with 225 km/h category 4 winds recorded.
Almost 50,000 square kilometres and dozens of stations and homesteads were affected, according to Cook Shire Council.
Station owners north of Coen copped the brunt of Tropical Cyclone Narelle’s damage. Photo: Supplied.
As some residents were without basic supplies a week later, Cook Shire Mayor Robyn Holmes said: “This was not a small event.”
“We’re looking at an impacted area of more than 47,000 sq km, including over 34,000 sq km within Cook Shire alone,” she said.
Residents across the peninsula have still been chasing emergency funding, picking up the pieces and making repairs as Maila lingers off the coast.
Check the BoM website for the latest warnings and advice on TC Maila.
